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News Analysis

Two pairs of winners and plenty of losers

The ICC's Full Members have always been more equal than those below Test level, but now that same special treatment has crept into the Associate and Affiliate ranks as well

Paul Stirling and William Porterfield put on 80 for Ireland, Ireland v Zimbabwe, World T20, First Round Group B, March 17, 2014

In the 2011-13 World Cricket League Championship, all Associates involved in the competition played an equal number of ODIs to decide World Cup qualification; it will not be the same under the new system  •  ICC

Following last year's formation of the "Big Three" in the Full Member sphere, a similar schism is in the process of occurring at the Associate and Affiliate level. The ICC's announcement on Wednesday that Ireland and Afghanistan will be the only Associates given a chance to qualify for the 2019 World Cup through the ODI rankings table has spawned the "Medium-Sized Two", making the pair separate from the rest of cricket's second-class citizens.
At first glance, the decision is a major achievement for two deserving countries that have been very competitive in recent years with Full Member nations. It also in some way establishes a guise of meritocracy for World Cup qualification rather than guaranteeing free entry to all Full Members, particularly for Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, at the exclusion of every Associate and Affiliate.
However, there is still plenty of grey area that obscures the actual benefits that can be reaped by both Associates through this decision. While Ireland and Afghanistan have been added to the ODI rankings table, there is still no provision for them in the Future Tours Programme to have a guaranteed number of matches.
From the end of the 2011 World Cup through Thursday, Sri Lanka has had the most scheduled ODIs of any country with 118 while Ireland had just 26. Of those, only 11 were against Full Members. Two of those matches, against Sri Lanka, were abandoned while a lone ODI against Australia ended with no result. West Indies were the only Full Member to host Ireland in that stretch, playing one ODI and two T20s in Jamaica.
Bangladesh has managed 50 ODIs in that time frame, almost double what Ireland has cobbled together, and along with Zimbabwe they are at far less risk of not qualifying for the World Cup by finishing outside the top eight - being in the top eight guarantees a spot at the World Cup - than it might seem. Even if Ireland or Afghanistan do finish in the top eight, it will be the lower-ranked Associate, not the lowest-ranked team overall, that faces relegation from the table. In the event that Bangladesh finishes outside the top-eight by the rankings table's September 2017 cutoff - meaning they would have to compete with the other three bottom-ranked teams for a spot at the World Cup - their designation as hosts of the 2018 World Cup Qualifier is a handy insurance policy.
In the 2011-13 World Cricket League Championship, all Associates involved in the competition played an equal number of ODIs to decide World Cup qualification; it will not be such a level playing field under the new system. There is no stipulation in place mandating an equitable number of ODIs counting towards World Cup qualification. Full Members can squeeze in more matches against certain opponents and abstain from playing others.
Cricket Ireland chief executive Warren Deutrom has appealed to the integrity and honour of Full Members, saying that they must give Ireland matches in order for the World Cup qualifying process to have credibility. Such noble-intentioned administrators seem few and far between in the Full Member world though. Based on prior history they are unlikely to take a charitable outlook on Associate leaders who come knocking on their door with hat in hand begging for fixtures.
Separately, the decision to include only Afghanistan and Ireland in the ODI rankings table will leave other Associates fuming. At the top of the list are the UAE and Scotland. It was only two weeks ago that Scotland shot out Afghanistan for 63 in an ODI in Abu Dhabi, conditions much more favorable to Afghanistan than Scotland.
Scotland has also been reasonably competitive recently against their centuries-old rival Ireland, narrowly losing a three-match series 2-1 in Ireland last September.
UAE has a 12-6 all-time record against Afghanistan in 50-over and T20 cricket, including a streak of seven straight wins that was finally snapped in May. In a four-match series at the end of 2014, UAE beat Afghanistan three times with Afghanistan barely able to eek out a two-wicket win to avoid a whitewash.
It is conceivable that Scotland and UAE could finish above Ireland and Afghanistan in the final World Cup standings. Yet before a game has been played at the tournament, UAE and Scotland have already been told they will have to jump over one more hurdle than Ireland and Afghanistan when it comes to 2019 qualification.
Other Associates are in the same boat as Scotland and UAE. Although in a separate format, Netherlands upended Ireland in an epic chase to reach the main draw of last year's World T20. With their win over Bangladesh in March, Hong Kong can lay claim to a Full Member scalp at a World T20, something Afghanistan has failed to do in three World T20 appearances. In November, Papua New Guinea became the first nation to score wins in their first two ODIs but have now been left to wonder what is the value of ODI status if they are shunned from the rankings table.
It's worth remembering that Afghanistan finished sixth in the 2009 World Cup Qualifier, the lowest-ranking position granted ODI status, before continual growth in ODI cricket resulted in second place in the 2011-13 WCL Championship to qualify for the 2015 World Cup. PNG was the sixth-ranked Associate after the 2014 World Cup Qualifier but they are being denied the opportunity to demonstrate the same rapid progression that Afghanistan carried out over a similar stretch of time.
Finally, the evidence that there are rules for some but not for others extends not just at the top of the Associate ladder with Ireland and Afghanistan but also to the bottom rung of the WCL Championship in the form of Kenya and Nepal. Prior to the start of WCL Division Two, the ICC stated in a press release that only the top two teams at the tournament would qualify for the WCL Championship and Intercontinental Cup. Less than two weeks later, they have done an about face.
No one will be unhappy about more opportunities for more teams to be involved, least of all Kenya and Nepal. It's a wonderful chance for Nepal, the fastest growing Associate, to continue developing. But the decision to include the third and fourth-place teams at Division Two should have been made before the tournament began. It cheapens the hard work done by Namibia and Netherlands to finish in the top two.
Afghanistan and Ireland achieved an administrative victory in the ICC board room on Wednesday. To a lesser extent, Kenya and Nepal also scored big. However, the coup pulled off by the "Medium Sized Two" came at the expense of their Associate and Affiliate brethren. The ICC's Full Members have always been more equal than those below Test level, but now that same special treatment has crept into the Associate and Affiliate ranks as well. That creates plenty more losers on the day than winners.

Peter Della Penna is ESPNcricinfo's USA correspondent. @PeterDellaPenna